For the first 5 months of this year, the Dunlap market (defined here by the homes that are within the Dunlap school district-not just those having a Dunlap mailing address) have seen a dramatic increase in the number of homes for sale, due in large part to the reorganization of the local corporate structure and specifically the shifting of positions out of the Caterpillar facility in nearby Mossville. The number of new homes coming on the market was up 20% over the same period of 2016. By July 2017, the number of homes for sale in the Dunlap school district reached their highest point since Oct 2011. As of July that number was 519 homes for sale. But since then, it has gone down each month to the current level of 338 homes (as of today).
The links in this post are “live”, meaning if you click on them next month, or 6 months from now, they will continually be updated.
For homes in the Dunlap school district, looking at the same time frame, we see that the number of homes for sale decreased between July and August, and continued through Sept, which is actually a welcome indicator because from the beginning of 2017 it has been increasing at an unsustainable rate, with multiples of more homes coming on the market than there are buyers to buy them.
Here’s a live link showing that data.
Pending sales in Dunlap were also up dramatically in August, which is reflective of possibly the introduction of some incentives on some Caterpillar relocation homes.
Here’s a live link showing this data.
Closed sales can’t really be tied to the Cat program yet because we have more homes pending in the Cat program currently than have closed.
The months supply of homes for sale however in Dunlap did withdraw a little in August, and then continued in Sept which is a welcome site since it had hit 14.6 months in July(a 5-6 month supply is considered a healthy balanced market) and has pulled back to 13.5 months in August. This was the first decrease since Dec 2016.
Here is a live link showing that data.
Another indicator of the market turning around is that closings last month for September went UP from August. This normally isn’t the case, in fact it’s never the case. Here’s a graph showing the last 11 years in Dunlap school district. Every August to September transition shows a decrease in the number of closings, except for last month, which shows an increase for Aug to Sept for closings in Dunlap.
Here’s a live link showing
In breaking it down even further, let’s look at homes $300K and above (the entry price point for a trade in) that are in the Dunlap school district. This is where things get a little more telling.
The following link shows the average number of showings on homes in Dunlap priced at $300K at above. In August it went up. All of the prior years on the chart it has never gone up in August. The September data shows a decrease, which is consistent with every other Aug to Sept transition since this data was being kept (about 3 years). Another fact is that average number of showings in August 2017 was the highest average number since June 2016.
Here is a live link showing the increase in the showings.
Same thing happened with pending sales. No other August in the last few years shows an increase in pending sales.
The September data shows a pull back in pendings, however in looking at the data every September going back to 2006, we see that there were still more pendings in Dunlap above $300K this September than any prior Sept.
Here’s a link showing the number of pendings every month going back to 2006, for homes in Dunlap above $300K.
Same thing with the cumulative days on market. In August of 2017, they went down. No other August on the chart shows a decrease in August.
Same thing with the months supply of homes for sale. In August 2017 it took a dramatic dip. No other August on the chart in the last few years shows the same. This trend continued into September, continuing to go down.
So when looking at the month of August, when we would normally would not see a pick up in activity, we are seeing movement in the areas that have the greatest number of Caterpillar homes in the program. The September data continues to back of the assertion that the market in Dunlap has perhaps hit the low point and is on the rebound.
The overall shift that is occurring is that many people have an increased confidence in their job stability and when that is coupled with some of the great deals that are out there, as well as some of the incentives that are being offered, they realize it’s a great time to take advantage of all of these opportunities.
To find out more information about the market, or if you are curious to see these same data points for different areas around central Illinois, feel free to give us a call!
Thanks for reading and visiting www.markmonge.com
Mark and Jennifer Monge