What effect has the Washington tornado had on the local markets?

This has been one of the biggest questions we have not only gotten, but also that we have ourselves. When the tornado ripped through Washington this past November and wiped 100’s of homes off the map, logic would seem to dictate that most of the existing homes for sale in Washington would be snapped up. In December it looked like that might be happening. Closed sales in Dec 2013 were up 128.6 percent in Washington compared to Dec 2012.

But then came January 2014. With sales being up 128 percent the month before, you would expect that trend to continue somewhat. So what were the sales like in Jan? Click here to see the full report for all of the communities in Jan. What it shows is that Washington only sold one more home in Jan 2014 compared to Jan 2013…14 homes compared to 13 homes, an increase of 7.7%. In fact, there are still quite a few homes that are new constructions in Trails Edge and Mallard Crossing that were there in Nov, and are still for sale today.

The other question was what spill over effect was this going to have on nearby communities like Germantown Hills, Metamora, Morton and East Peoria. Let’s take a look.

For Dec 2013, we have the following closed sales data for:

East Peoria…down 28.6% with 8 fewer sales than the prior Dec.

Morton…up 14.3% with 2 additional sales than the prior Dec….14 sales in Dec 2012 compared to 16 in Dec 2013.

Germantown Hills…up 50%…however this only represents 2 additional sales…4 sales in 2012 compared to 6 sales in 2013.

Metamora…up 116%…7 more sales…6 in Dec 2012 and 13 in Dec 2013.

Dunlap…up 13.3% (2 additional homes) and Peoria…up 20% with 20 additional homes.

So to summarize, Metamora had the biggest increase while the other increases were negligible really.

How about January 2014?

If Dec saw a huge jump in Washington sales figures, and marginal numbers in surrounding communities, what would the following month look like?

East Peoria…down 3 homes and 15%.

Morton…down 5 homes and 31%.

Germantown Hills…even…5 homes sold in Jan 2013 and 5 homes sold in 2014.

Metamora…up 5 homes which equated to 125% increase…4 homes sold in Jan 2013 and 9 sold in Jan 2014.

Dunlap…down 4 homes and 36%. Peoria up 5 homes and 6.2%.

The February stats are not available yet. My prediction is that they will not show any major change in any of the markets, but more of the same. The weather this past Dec, Jan and Feb has been about as challenging as any winter we have had in recent memory, which may play a part. The lack of corporate moves into and out of the area effects some of the higher end markets more so than some other communities. 2013 overall saw a decrease of corporate related moves compared to 2012. 2014 may mirror 2013 in many regards. A lot of eyes will still be on Washington however. As evidenced by the sales in January, a lot of those that were displaced by the tornado opted for short term or regular leased rental options while they figure out just what their housing options are.

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