“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times” —-Mark Monge aka Charles Dickens
Ok, so maybe I didn’t say that quote, but if I were to talk about the Dunlap market in 2017, it would have started as the worst of times, and it’s ending on a positive note.
The trends continue to be on the upswing for the overall market, but this post will be specifically for the Dunlap market. By ‘Dunlap” I’m defining that as any home that resides in the Dunlap school district, regardless of if it has a Dunlap, Peoria or Edwards address. I know, it’s slightly goofy how the school lines and mailing addresses are drawn, but have you ever tried to fight the post office? Good luck.
BTW, all of the links to the graphs in this post are live, meaning if you revisit this page next month, or next year, it will be continually updated with the most recent data available. So be sure to check back in.
This first graph (click here ) looks at the months supply of homes for sale over the last 4 years. The months supply of homes essentially means how many months would it take to sell everything on the market at the current rate of sales. A 5-7 month supply of homes is considered a balanced market. Anything less is a sellers market, anything more is a buyers market.
In looking at this graph you’ll see how it went on a wild ride up in July 2016 to an 11 month supply, and withdrew a little to 10.2 months in Nov 2016. From there it went through the roof to 14.9 months in July 2017. We’ll call this the dark days of 2017. This was a period of time where we saw the announcement that Caterpillar was relocating their headquarters to Deerfield, which coincided with continued uneasiness about the stability of the local job market. There were a lot more homes for sale than there were buyers looking.
I’m calling this the bottom of the central Illinois real estate market for 2017.
And then August 2017 rolled in.
Between Aug 2017 and Dec 2017, we saw this oversupply plummet from 14.9 months to a 8.8 months supply. Still a buyers market but we were closing in on a balanced market.
The next indicator that we’ve turned the corner is the dollar volume of closed sales. This is a tally (click here) of the total dollar amount of closed sales. Dec 2017 shows we were at $12.8M. Compare this to Nov 2016 ($9.1M), Nov 2015 ($4.4M) and Nov 2014 ($5.7M). This shows we are doing much better than last Nov, almost 3 times as much better than Nov 2015 and over twice as much better than Nov 2014. While Aug 2017 closed as a down number, take this into account…most offers made in Aug probably didn’t close in Aug, they closed in September. And the data shows that. Suddenly in September the numbers started climbing.
The next graph (click here) shows, on average, how many times a home was shown in Dunlap last month, and every month, over the last few years. Dec 2017 shows we averaged 1.8 showings per month, compared to 2.0 the Dec before, and 1.8 the Dec before that and 2.4 the Dec of 2014.
The next graph (click here) shows the total number of homes for sale each month over the last few years. In Nov 2014 and 2015 it was pretty similar, around 310 homes and 331 homes respectively. Nov 2016 however it spiked to 400 homes and kept climbing to a high of 529 (which is just ridiculous if you ask me) in July 2017.
And then August 2017 rolled in.
And just like the other data points show, August started to show a turn around. The number of homes on the market for sale plummeted to 418, the biggest single drop in homes for sale in 30 day period in Dunlap’s history. Dec 2017 we had 372 homes on the market. It has dropped and come in line more-every month-since Aug 2017.
Pending sales….this graph (click here) shows the number of homes currently pending at the end of each month over the last few years in Dunlap school district. At the end of Dec 2017 there were 33 homes pending. Dec 2016 there were 23 pending. Nov 2015 there were 25. Nov 2014 there were 23.
Closed sales. This graph (click here) shows the number of closed sales in Dunalp school district the end of each month over the last few years. In Dec 2017 there were 48 closings. In Dec 2016 there were 26. In Dec 2015 there were 27 and in Dec 2014 there were 35.
So what does 2018 hold?
Continue to check back to this article and the links above will be automatically updated. However, I can say on a personal level, we have had more closings in Dec so far than we ever have in the past, so I expect this trend to continue. I think it’s a combination of 3 factors.
1) Job stability. The stability of the job market right now is better than it has been in the last few years.
2) Great values. There are still some great values on homes that are out there and if we’ve reached a bottom then the smart buyers are aware of this also and understand that values will only go up and now is a great time to buy.
3) Corporate incentives. Caterpillar is offering some terrific incentives on homes that are for sale that are related to their transferring employees. This ranges for a 3% buyer incentive that they can use towards closing costs and upgrades, to a $3500 moving credit as well as a potential trade in option on a buyers homes (ask me for details).
Add up those three factors and its an easy decision. Now is a great time to buy in the Peoria area. I expect the trend from a buyers market to a sellers market to continue as it has for the last 5 consecutive months. The corporate incentives won’t be out there forever, so take advantage of them while you can.
If you have any questions about any of the data in this report, or about real estate in general, feel free to give me a call anytime!
Mark and Jennifer Monge
Jim Maloof Realtors